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 900 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140236
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
  
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HECTOR HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED THIS
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE LARGE AREA
 OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WEAKENED
 AND BEEN PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  ALTHOUGH
 DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BECAUSE A NEW BURST
 OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE
 CENTER.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
 CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THIS TIME...HECTOR IS
 FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THIS IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS..HECTOR IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.
  
 AS THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT IT WAS
 LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. RECENT CENTER
 FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER OR
 270/5 KT.  AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENS...A TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT.  THE ECMWF AND GFDL
 MODELS DEPICT A SHARPER AND FASTER NORTHWARD TURN IN 36-48 HOURS
 THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...CLOSE TO THE HFIP
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SLOWER AND
 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/0300Z 18.0N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 18.0N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 18.2N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  18/0000Z 20.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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