448 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130834
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
  
 HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE BLASTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE
 LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
 CENTER IS QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS
 SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW STORM
 STRENGTH...BUT THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT
 INTENSITY VALUES FROM TAFB.  DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE
 SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
 PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS
 HECTOR DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...
 UNLESS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP
 CONVECTION LATER TODAY...HECTOR COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
 CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
 SINCE THE SUN HAS SET OVER THE AREA...THE CENTER IS MUCH MORE
 DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AUTOMATED STATION AT
 SOCORRO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER RECENTLY PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF
 THE ISLAND.  BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...MY
 BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF HECTOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY AROUND 72
 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
 INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD
 A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SHALLOW CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE
 LOWER-LAYER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
 VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/0900Z 18.1N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  15/0600Z 18.6N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  16/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH