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 691 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 122033
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012
  
 HECTOR REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE 
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE 
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN
 CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME EVEN MORE SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER
 AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT DVORAK
 DATA T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT
 40 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
 EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS AND IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
 STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
 LOWERED AND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3
 DAYS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.
 
 HECTOR HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS 270/6.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 TO THE NORTH.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
 DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO DECELERATE EVEN MORE AND TURN
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
 SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER  
 AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
 SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THOSE
 MODELS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 18.9N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 20.3N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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