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 213 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 210841
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
  
 CONVECTION THAT HAD EARLIER BEEN CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
 THE CENTER HAS BENN SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH...MAKING LOCATION
 AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
 WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
 NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
 UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS.  WHILE SOME CONVECTION
 REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE.  WITH
 WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...TROPICAL
 STORM HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
 REMAND LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW
 310/6 KT...AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
 BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
 SLOWER AND MORE TO THE LEFT AS HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE
 LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT LOW.
 
 THE 12-FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT RADII WERE BASED ON THE LATEST
 OUTPUT FROM THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL WHICH VERIFIED WELL WITH A SHIP
 OBSERVATION 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF HECTOR.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0900Z 21.2N 135.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     21/1800Z 21.8N 136.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 136.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.6N 137.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N 139.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO
  
 
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