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 295 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 170833
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006
  
 INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
 WITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
 THAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE
 UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
 SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 UNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W. 
 THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-
 LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR
 MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE
 NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
 FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH
 KEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
 MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
 OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG
 THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE
 FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 HECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
 THAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
 THAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE
 UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD
 DECREASE THE SHEAR.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING
 OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO
 THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL
 CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24
 HR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  IT
 THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
 A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER
 THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W    60 KT
  12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W    70 KT
  24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W    75 KT
  36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W    70 KT
  48HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W    60 KT
  72HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W    50 KT
  96HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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