060 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 162035
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
  
 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
 AFTERNOON...WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM.  DVORAK SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
 RESPECTIVELY.  THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT...BUT HECTOR COULD
 EASILY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
 THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9.  HECTOR IS MOVING
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...CONTINUING ON WESTWARD
 OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE
 TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
 AFTER 72 HOURS...CAUSING HECTOR TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE
 NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
 UKMET AND THE NOGAPS REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...WITH THE UKMET
 MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5...AND NOGAPS INDICATING
 A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REMAINING
 GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
 GFS...GFDL...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.
 
 WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1357Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 13.8N 117.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W    65 KT
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W    75 KT
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W    80 KT
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W    75 KT
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB