868 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 161455
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006
  
 ALL INDICATIONS FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE THAT
 HECTOR IS STRENGTHENING...BUT JUST HOW STRONG IS SUBJECT TO SOME
 SPECULATION...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION
 CENTER.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED BENEATH THE MASS OF
 DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1052Z SUGGESTED THE
 CENTER WAS STILL TENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
 CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...IN
 LARGE PART DUE TO THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY.  GIVEN THE CENTER
 LOCATION SUGGESTED BY THE TRMM DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
 INCREASED TO 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGH END OF THE DVORAK
 ESTIMATES...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON. 
 INDEED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
 STRENGTHENING...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL
 MODELS...UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE
 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD...WITH A PEAK
 INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
 SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
 HECTOR CONTINUES WESTWARD FOR NOW...270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 
 THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER
 THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC.  HECTOR WILL PROBABLY SOON START
 MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
 NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO PERSIST DURING THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR...BUT WITH JUST ENOUGH
 RIDGING TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  A
 COUPLE OF OUTLIERS REMAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
 SUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ON THE NORTH AND THE UKMET ON THE
 SOUTH.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODELS
 IN THE MIDDLE...THE GFDL AND GFS...AND IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TO THE
 SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 13.0N 117.2W    55 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W    65 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.9N 120.7W    75 KT
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 14.6N 122.7W    80 KT
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.3N 124.6W    80 KT
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 135.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB