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 002 
 WTNT43 KNHC 220243
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
 
 HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 BEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE
 CENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
 INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
 OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY
 HAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
 STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
 RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE
 OVER 24 HOURS.
  
 THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. 
 THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  A TURN
 TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.
  
 MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND
 OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
 MAIN HAZARD.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND
 GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA
 VERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
    
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0300Z 19.0N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 19.3N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST
  24H  23/0000Z 19.5N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
  
 
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