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 123 
 WTNT43 KNHC 211442
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP
 CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE DURING THE
 LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
 FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL
 CLUSTER OF REMAINING CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF HARVEY SEEMS TO HAVE
 AVOIDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 WHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED IT TO SURVIVE LONGER.
  
 THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 280/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24
 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HARVEY OVER
 LAND...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND SUGGEST A
 SLIM CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE EXTREME
 SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NO
 SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
 VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
 THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
 CONSENSUS.
  
 HEAVY RAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
 FLASH FLOODING...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
 MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/1500Z 17.7N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  12H  22/0000Z 18.1N  94.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  24H  22/1200Z 18.3N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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