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 146 
 WTNT43 KNHC 210848
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
  
 LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND
 SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY
 WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
 WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13.  THE COVERAGE OF DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
 DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING
 CLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT
 DISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
 SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS
 AND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
 BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE
 NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS
 VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IF THE CENTER
 WAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT
 BE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...
 AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING
 UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE
 OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY
 OR TWO.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 17.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 18.1N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  22/0600Z 18.3N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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