062 
 WTNT43 KNHC 052026
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005
  
 HARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE
 DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON
 SATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE.
 HARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND AN
 EXPANSION OF THE CIRCULATION AS A NEW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
 APPROACHES. THEREFORE...HARVEY WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
 DURING THIS PERIOD. 
 
 HARVEY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. 
 THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE
 RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO
 THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD
 THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  57.4W    45 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 32.9N  56.3W    40 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 34.1N  55.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 36.1N  54.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     07/1800Z 38.0N  53.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     08/1800Z 42.0N  47.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     09/1800Z 45.9N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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