394 
 WTNT44 KNHC 221453
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
 
 
 Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane
 indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday.
 The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well
 organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing
 near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate
 westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still
 expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over
 the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the
 depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3
 days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the
 global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
 upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
 the cyclone survives its path over land.  On this basis, the NHC
 forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days.
 
 Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering
 during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a
 mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward
 for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once
 in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift
 out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone.
 This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in
 the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However,
 the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly
 uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF
 model solutions.
 
 Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
 directly related to the tropical depression.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 19.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 19.3N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  24/0000Z 18.8N  89.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  24/1200Z 18.5N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  72H  25/1200Z 18.5N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  26/1200Z 18.5N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  27/1200Z 18.5N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila