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 238 
 WTNT43 KNHC 042101
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
 500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
  
 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE
 CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN
 CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES.  THERE ARE ALSO
 MULTIPLE SWIRLS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
 JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
 ASYMMETRY.  ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE
 ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
 TIME...THAT IS...MORE ALONG THE TRACK...AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN
 IMPACT ON THE TRACK.  THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. 
 THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY
 A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   
 
 RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY
 AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE.  WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A
 LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS
 NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
 TOPS OUT AT 60 KT.  HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
 POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
 FORECAST...AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/2100Z 25.5N  75.0W    55 KT
  12HR VT     05/0600Z 27.2N  76.4W    55 KT
  24HR VT     05/1800Z 30.3N  78.0W    60 KT
  36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.9N  78.3W    60 KT...ON THE COAST
  48HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  76.5W    50 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     07/1800Z 46.0N  65.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     08/1800Z 51.0N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     09/1800Z 52.5N  32.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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