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 542 
 WTPA42 PHFO 122055
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
 1100 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015
 
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
 THE LLCC...WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMING IN AT 3.0
 FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 3.5 AT HFO. CIMSS SATCON SUGGESTED MAXIMUM
 SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT...AND AN AVERAGE OF THE FIXES AND SATCON
 YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
 EXTRAPOLATION BETWEEN A BRIEF EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY
 BETWEEN 1230 AND 1500 UTC AND A 1827 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS RELIED UPON
 TO ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO
 DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE LLCC...INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AT
 300/11 KT. WHILE RATHER STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS 
 FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 30N...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS BEING 
 CAUSED BY A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INDUCED BY AN UPPER
 LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 900 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HALOLA WILL 
 CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING 
 STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST 
 RUNS NEARLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOLLOWING 
 CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS.
 
 SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. HALOLA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA 
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 83 F WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
 AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY THREE. DURING THIS 
 TIME...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE A 
 DISRUPTION TO THE OUTFLOW IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AS 
 HALOLA SHOULD REMAIN IN OR NEAR THE BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 
 MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HALOLA WILL INTENSIFY...AND THE 
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR ICON AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 
 ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. BASED ON 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HALOLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON 
 TOMORROW.
  
 INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
 THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
 CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
 TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
 BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
 DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
 HONOLULU HAWAII.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z 12.8N 179.9E   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 13.5N 178.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 14.4N 176.3E   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 15.2N 174.4E   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 16.1N 172.3E   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 17.6N 168.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 18.7N 164.0E   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 19.8N 159.5E   75 KT  85 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE
  
 
 
 
 
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