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 011 
 WTPA42 PHFO 121445
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
 500 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS REVEAL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
 STRUCTURE OF HALOLA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
 BUT SEVERAL OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE PASSES AND AN ASCAT PASS INDICATE
 THAT THE CENTER IS MOST LIKELY STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
 EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME
 IN AT 45 KT ACROSS THE BOARD...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS DROPPED
 BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RECENT
 MICROWAVE IMAGES DID DEPICT DECENT BANDING STRUCTURES SOUTH AND
 SOUTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER...AND HAVE HELD THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE
 IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
 PERIOD...AS HALOLA TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
 FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS A BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD
 THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL TAKING THE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF
 WAKE ISLAND IN ABOUT 96 HOURS...WHILE THE HWRF IS WELL TO THE
 SOUTH...AND THE GFS REMAINS IN BETWEEN...VERY CLOSE TO THE
 TVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST
 TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH SOME VERY
 MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AFTER 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE 
 TVCN AND THE GFS.
  
 WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER LIE ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT VERTICAL 
 SHEAR MAGNITUDES AS DIAGNOSED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE
 REMAIN LOW AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR IS FROM THE
 NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWEST SHEAR APPEARS TO BE HAVING A NEGATIVE
 IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE AT PRESENT...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT
 SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAGNITUDES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS. SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING
 THE CYCLONE AS THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY...WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL AND ICON
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
 GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW
 THE SLOWER LGEM INTENSIFICATION CURVE FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
 WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HALOLA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
 TYPHOON IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AFTER IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL
 DATELINE. AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LEVELS OFF
 INTENSITY AROUND 70 KT...LIKELY DUE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS
 FORECAST TO BE PRESENT ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK.
  
 INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
 ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
 INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC LATER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/1500Z 11.9N 179.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 12.5N 179.2E   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 13.4N 177.1E   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 14.2N 174.9E   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  14/1200Z 15.0N 172.7E   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  15/1200Z 17.0N 168.7E   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  16/1200Z 19.0N 164.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  17/1200Z 20.5N 160.5E   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON
  
 
 
 
 
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