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WTPA42 PHFO 121445
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015
INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS REVEAL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF HALOLA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
BUT SEVERAL OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE PASSES AND AN ASCAT PASS INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER IS MOST LIKELY STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME
IN AT 45 KT ACROSS THE BOARD...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS DROPPED
BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES DID DEPICT DECENT BANDING STRUCTURES SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER...AND HAVE HELD THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS HALOLA TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS A BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD
THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL TAKING THE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF
WAKE ISLAND IN ABOUT 96 HOURS...WHILE THE HWRF IS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND THE GFS REMAINS IN BETWEEN...VERY CLOSE TO THE
TVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH SOME VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AFTER 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
TVCN AND THE GFS.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT VERTICAL
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AS DIAGNOSED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE
REMAIN LOW AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR IS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWEST SHEAR APPEARS TO BE HAVING A NEGATIVE
IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE AT PRESENT...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAGNITUDES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING
THE CYCLONE AS THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY...WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL AND ICON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SLOWER LGEM INTENSIFICATION CURVE FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HALOLA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
TYPHOON IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AFTER IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE. AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LEVELS OFF
INTENSITY AROUND 70 KT...LIKELY DUE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.
INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 11.9N 179.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 12.5N 179.2E 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 13.4N 177.1E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 14.2N 174.9E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.0N 172.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 168.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.0N 164.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 20.5N 160.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON
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