460 
 WTPA42 PHFO 110837
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
 1100 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
  
 SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS TROPICAL STORM HALOLA HAS ABOUT THE SAME 
 OVERALL ORGANIZATION AS IT DID SIX HOURS AGO. THE LLCC LIKELY LIES 
 JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH MID-LEVEL 
 ROTATION WITHIN THIS DEEP CONVECTION SLIPPING JUST SOUTH OF 11N. A 
 LATE AFTERNOON RAPIDSCAT PASS STRONGLY HINTS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS 
 NORTH OF 11N...AT ABOUT 11.2N...BUT THE OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT 
 THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST A BIT OF LATITUDE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST 
 CYCLE. THE TAU 3 MOTION IS SET AT 270/11 KT...BUT INITIAL MOTION IS 
 MORE LIKE 265/11 KT. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 FROM JTWC TO 3.0 FROM PHFO. SAB SPLITS THE 
 DIFFERENCE AT 2.5. THE RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD BELT OF 35 KT 
 WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THE LLCC. THIS...AND 
 THE SIMILAR SATELLITE PRESENTATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO...LEAD US TO 
 KEEP HALOLA INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
 
 WE EXPECT HALOLA WILL STOP LOSING LATITUDE TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES 
 MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
 RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY TAKES A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 
 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
 TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. MINOR TRACK 
 ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LEFT THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR 
 THE INITIAL LATITUDE LOSS...THEN FROM 36 THROUGH 120 HOURS TO 
 ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT CONSENSUS DRIFT TO THE LEFT.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT WE 
 CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN HALOLA BEYOND THAT...WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW 
 FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE AT 
 TAU 72. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT SHOWN IN 
 SHIPS AND IN IVCN CONSENSUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  
 
 INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
 STORM HALOLA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z 11.2N 174.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 11.4N 176.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 12.1N 178.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 13.0N 179.5E   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z 13.9N 177.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  14/0600Z 15.5N 172.7E   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  15/0600Z 17.0N 168.3E   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  16/0600Z 18.4N 163.7E   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL