404 
 WTPA42 PHFO 110228
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012015
 500 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
  
 LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM
 JTWC AND 2.5 FROM PHFO AND SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
 IMPROVEMENT IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE-C HAS
 BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 
 
 THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE SYSTEM
 REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO ITS NORTH. THIS
 GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS WITH TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...AS RIDGING
 REMAINS ESTABLISHED TO ITS NORTH.
 
 SHEAR VALUES ARE PRESENTLY RATHER LOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SST
 VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
 TO ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS
 BEFORE LEVELING OFF THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
 IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
 THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING ON DAYS
 4 AND 5 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
 OF AROUND 28C WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0300Z 11.5N 173.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 11.7N 174.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 12.2N 176.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 13.0N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 13.8N 178.9E   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z 15.6N 174.4E   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z 17.3N 169.9E   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z 18.6N 165.4E   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE