957 
 WTNT42 KNHC 020256
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
  
 THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS
 EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.  RECENT
 MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE
 BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT.  THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT
 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A
 TROPICAL STORM.  GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS
 EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY...
 AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
 THE FORWARD MOTION OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN MORE DURING
 THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
 NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE
 MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
 MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE GUSTAV'S CIRCULATION WILL BECOME
 ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
 UNITED STATES.  THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS
 GUSTAV TO BECOME MERGE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 5
 DAYS...IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
  
 INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN
 GULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM GUSTAV
 NOW SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
 THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 31.1N  92.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  93.7W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 32.7N  94.6W    25 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 33.1N  95.2W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 33.7N  95.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 35.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0000Z 36.0N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN