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 357 
 WTNT42 KNHC 011454
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
  
 THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
 COCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE
 BECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR.  HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE
 RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS
 THAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND
 THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
 BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. 
 THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
 BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART
 OF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
 
 GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING
 WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH
 LOUISIANA MARSHES.  A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS
 THE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND.  AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS
 LIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE
 MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND. 
 THUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72
 HR.
 
 THE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA
 COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
 CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 29.2N  90.8W    95 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.3N  92.4W    70 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.3N  93.8W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.9N  94.6W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 32.4N  95.3W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 33.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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