574 
 WTNT42 KNHC 311457
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
 
 GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
 THIS MORNING.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
 COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. 
 WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER.  THE LATEST REPORT FROM
 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
 962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
 SOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
 MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
 GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW
 GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
 SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
 THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
 TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
 BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
 THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
 SOUTHWESTWARD.  SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
 MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
 AFTER 72 HR.
 
 AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
 UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
 SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
 LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
 LANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
 AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
 VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. 
 ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
 NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
 BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL.  THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
 BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
 HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
 OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
 MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. 
 GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/1500Z 25.3N  86.0W   105 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 27.0N  87.7W   115 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 28.6N  89.7W   115 KT
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.0N  91.5W    85 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.1N  93.0W    50 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 32.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  95.9W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN