886 
 WTNT42 KNHC 301500
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
  
 AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING RATE
 APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
 REPORTED BY RECON HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING...WITH THE
 MOST RECENT VALUE DOWN TO 954 MB.  THE BRIEF TIME GUSTAV WILL SPEND
 OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD NOT WEAKEN THE
 HURRICANE MUCH...AND ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS
 ARE CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEANIC
 HEAT CONTENT IS GREATEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 120 KT...VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
 AVAILABLE MODELS.  DESPITE THE IMPLIED WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72
 HOURS DUE TO FORECAST LANDFALL...NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST
 WHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF...AND IT COULD REACH THE
 NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
 GUSTAV JOGGED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS NOT
 YET CLEAR IF IT HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...BUT THE
 LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/12.  THE STEERING
 CURRENTS PUSHING GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD ARE GENERALLY WELL-DEFINED
 AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...MOST
 OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS A
 STRONG BUT DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
 AND STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.  NONE OF
 THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THEIR TRACK SOLUTION COMPARED
 TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE.  
 THE SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH SOME
 MODELS INCLUDING THE UKMET AND HWRF CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TURN
 WESTWARD JUST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING
 GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS
 JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR
 THE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION.  REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE
 TRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
 LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER
 LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 21.2N  82.1W   110 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W   105 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.4W   115 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.3W   120 KT
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N  89.2W   110 KT
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  92.5W    65 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 31.5N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB