324 
 WTNT42 KNHC 261445
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
  
 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND PEAK
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT...AND AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT.
 THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.  A
 DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE OF GUSTAV DURING THE LAST AIRCRAFT
 PASS THROUGH THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...FOUND A SURFACE
 PRESSURE OF 982 MB...BUT WITH 12 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE...SO THE
 MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SLIGHTLY LOWER.  THE AIRCRAFT
 AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
 VERY SMALL EYE...HOWEVER THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT IN
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
 GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
 HAITI...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8.  TRACK MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
 VERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
 LOCATED OVER FLORIDA.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
 THE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
 MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
 MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE
 GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW
 NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
 LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE
 CENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
 HAITI.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV'S PASSAGE OVER
 LAND...AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE 
 MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.  THEREAFTER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
 WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH FAVORS
 STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL...
 BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF. 
 
 ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO
 POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.9N  72.4W    80 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.6N  73.3W    75 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N  74.6W    80 KT
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 19.3N  75.9W    85 KT
  48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.4N  77.3W    90 KT
  72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  80.2W   100 KT
  96HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  83.5W   105 KT
 120HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N  87.0W   105 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH