942 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015
 
 
 The cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate, but it is organized
 enough to keep the same Dvorak T-numbers with an initial intensity
 of 90 kt. Guillermo is heading toward a shear environment, and on
 this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a gradual weakening. By the
 time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian Islands, the upper-level
 winds are forecast to be even more unfavorable, and by then,
 Guillermo is expected to have weakened to a tropical storm. The NHC
 forecast continues to be very close to the intensity consensus model
 ICON.
 
 Guillermo is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12
 kt.  The hurricane is already located on the southwestern edge of
 the subtropical ridge, and there is a large weakness in the ridge to
 its northwest. This pattern should force the cyclone to slow down
 even further and turn more to the west-northwest or northwest. The
 most reliable track models are now in better agreement, and the
 multi-model consensus brings Guillermo just north or very near
 the Hawaiian Islands.  The NHC forecast follows the consensus and is
 very similar to the previous one.
 
 Due to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is
 important for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96
 and 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72
 hours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at
 those time periods.
 
 Since Guillermo is now moving into the Central Pacific, future
 information will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane
 Center at Honolulu, Hawaii.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila