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 358 
 WTPA44 PHFO 071458
 TCDCP4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 500 AM HST FRI AUG 07 2015
  
 A PARTIAL NARROW RING OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED 
 TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 
 SEMICIRCLE OF GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION 
 HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION APPEARS 
 TO BE ALMOST COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE. SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP 
 CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS EVIDENT THAT 
 GUILLERMO HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS 
 TONIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE CORE OF GUILLERMO 
 AROUND 0801Z SHOWED NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. INSTEAD... 
 THERE APPEARED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED 
 SURFACE TROUGH UNDERNEATH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LEVEL 
 CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED A NEARLY 105 NM WIDE BAND OF 
 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS 
 TROUGH. WINDS ALONG AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WERE 20 KT 
 OR LESS. ALSO...NO SATELLITE FIX AGENCY WAS ABLE TO CLASSIFY 
 GUILLERMO FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...GUILLERMO IS BEING 
 DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS OF THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
 
 THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE REMNANTS OF GUILLERMO IS 285 DEGREES AT
 15 KT. THE FINAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE
 THIS SAME GENERAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTER OF
 GUIDANCE INTO SATURDAY. THE TRUNCATED TRACK MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES
 THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED
 ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. ASSUMING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
 BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF GUILLERMO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR
 NORTH OF HAWAII REMAINS IN PLACE...WINDS OF 30 KT WILL LIKELY
 CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
 GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY OCCURRING BY
 SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS 
 SYSTEM...UNLESS RE-GENERATION OCCURS.
  
 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH
 SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
 HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/1500Z 22.7N 158.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 23.3N 161.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  08/1200Z 24.2N 164.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON
  
 
 
 
 
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