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 002 
 WTPA44 PHFO 052054
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 1100 AM HST WED AUG 05 2015
  
 
 THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO HAS BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL 
 WIND SHEAR. A U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 
 PERSISTENT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 62 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 
 QUADRANT...WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED...AND CONVERSION OF 
 THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE YIELDS 50 KT. THE SFMR 
 REPORTED WINDS WERE UP TO 55 KT...BUT GIVEN COLLOCATED RAIN RATES... 
 THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 
 KT.
 
 STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
 ACCORDING CIMSS IS NEARLY 45 KT...AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
 OVERHEAD...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE 
 NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AS THE WARM CORE 
 ALOFT BECOMES FURTHER DISRUPTED AND INCREASINGLY TILTED. THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY...WEAKENING
 GUILLERMO INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
 DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. THE FORECAST CLOSELY
 FOLLOWS ICON. SHIPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVELY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AND
 FORECASTS DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY.
 
 AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO TO BE
 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS EXPECTED POSITION THIS MORNING...AND
 SUBSEQUENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS LOCATION...GIVING
 AN INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES...AT 10
 KT. THE NORTHWARD JOG IN THE INITIAL POSITION SUGGESTS THAT THE
 CIRCULATION...THOUGH TILTED...IS STILL COUPLED AT THE LOWER LEVELS
 AND ALOFT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER COULD BECOME DECOUPLED...CAUSING THE
 STEERING FLOW AFFECTING GUILLERMO TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED
 BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
 WITH THIS IN MIND...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM
 THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.
 
 TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII 
 HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED WITH THIS ADVISORY. THIS DECISION WAS MADE 
 GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEAKENING AND THE 
 DECREASE IN WIND PROBABILITIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/2100Z 21.4N 151.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 22.0N 153.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 22.6N 155.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 23.1N 157.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 23.8N 159.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  08/1800Z 25.5N 164.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/1800Z 27.4N 168.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE
  
 
 
 
 
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