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 008 
 WTPA44 PHFO 040244
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 500 PM HST MON AUG 03 2015
 
 LITTLE HAS CHANGED THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUILLERMO LOOKING VERY
 RAGGED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
 WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF AIRCRAFT RECON. A VERY TIMELY AMSU PASS AT
 0003 UTC WAS THE MAIN BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL AT 55
 KT AND IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE.
  
 GUILLERMO IS MOVING THROUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH AN
 INITIAL MOTION OF 310/09 KT. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE SHIFTED
 FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HWRF MAKING THE
 LARGEST LEAP TO BECOME A NORTHERN OUTLIER THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE
 CURRENT FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE
 TO THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN SOUTH OF THE
 DYNAMICAL AIDS FOR THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. THIS FORECAST TRACK
 ACCOUNTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COULD WEAKEN GUILLERMO A LITTLE FASTER THAN
 THE DYANMICAL AIDS FORECAST AND WILL FOLLOW A PATH WEIGHTED MORE
 TOWARD THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING CURRENT.
  
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
 TOWARD INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR. SHIPS SHEAR FORECASTS
 INDICATE 25 KT BY 12 HOURS AND MORE THAN 30 KT BY 48 HOURS. THIS IS
 CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS PROJECTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO AS IT
 APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IS IN LINE WITH THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
 WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO NORTHEAST OF
 THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
 THE TRACK WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM
 CONDITIONS TO THE BIG ISLAND OR MAUI COUNTY. WHEN ACCOUNTING
 FOR THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
 WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAWAII AND MAUI
 COUNTIES. OTHER COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED LATER AS NEEDED.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0300Z 18.1N 147.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 18.8N 148.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 19.8N 150.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  05/1200Z 20.6N 152.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  06/0000Z 21.5N 154.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 157.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  08/0000Z 25.5N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  09/0000Z 26.5N 166.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
 
 
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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