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 158 
 WTPA44 PHFO 032055 CCA
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 03 2015
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUILLERMO IS MAINTAINING A RATHER RAGGED
 APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
 ARE DISPLACED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE
 VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON
 DATA HAVE BEEN CRUCIAL IN HELPING LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
 WITHIN THE RAGGED CLOUD MASS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITIES FROM JTWC AND SAB CAME IN AT 55 KT WHILE PHFO CAME IN
 AT 65 KT.  THE CIMSS ADT AT 1800 UTC WAS ALSO 55 KT. LASTLY...THE
 ADJUSTED WIND DATA FROM THE USAF WEATHER RECON MISSION PRODUCED 53
 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A CONSENSUS OF THESE VALUES...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KT.
  
 GUILLERMO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT.
 HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON FLIGHT THIS
 MORNING FOUND THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
 THE FORECAST TRACK PROJECTION. THE ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN AN INITIAL
 MOTION OF 310/10 KT. WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK SHIFT...AND ALSO
 POSSIBLY DUE TO ADDED DATA FROM ONGOING AERIAL RECON MISSIONS...THE 
 OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED NORTHWARD WITH EVEN THE OUTLYING
 UKMET TAKING GUILLERMO NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A
 RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND GFS THROUGH 48
 HOURS THEN SOUTH OF THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME.
  
 ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...GUILLERMO WILL BE CONTINUING TO MOVE
 TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS
 SHEAR PROJECTIONS SHOW VALUES GOING ABOVE 20 KTS BY 12 HOURS AND
 ABOVE 30 KTS AT 60 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
 PROJECTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED
 WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
 AND IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
  
 AS GUILLERMO MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII...WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
 TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE DECISION TO HOLD
 OFF ON A WATCH ISSUANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS DUE TO THE
 NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND THE WEAKER WINDS IN THE
 SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WITH
 CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST
 IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
 SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/2100Z 17.5N 146.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 18.2N 148.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 19.1N 149.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 20.0N 151.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 20.9N 153.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 22.9N 157.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 25.0N 161.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  08/1800Z 26.0N 165.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
 
 
 
 
 
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