158
WTPA44 PHFO 032055 CCA
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1100 AM HST MON AUG 03 2015
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUILLERMO IS MAINTAINING A RATHER RAGGED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
ARE DISPLACED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE
VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON
DATA HAVE BEEN CRUCIAL IN HELPING LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE RAGGED CLOUD MASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES FROM JTWC AND SAB CAME IN AT 55 KT WHILE PHFO CAME IN
AT 65 KT. THE CIMSS ADT AT 1800 UTC WAS ALSO 55 KT. LASTLY...THE
ADJUSTED WIND DATA FROM THE USAF WEATHER RECON MISSION PRODUCED 53
KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A CONSENSUS OF THESE VALUES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KT.
GUILLERMO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON FLIGHT THIS
MORNING FOUND THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE FORECAST TRACK PROJECTION. THE ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 310/10 KT. WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK SHIFT...AND ALSO
POSSIBLY DUE TO ADDED DATA FROM ONGOING AERIAL RECON MISSIONS...THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED NORTHWARD WITH EVEN THE OUTLYING
UKMET TAKING GUILLERMO NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND GFS THROUGH 48
HOURS THEN SOUTH OF THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME.
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...GUILLERMO WILL BE CONTINUING TO MOVE
TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS
SHEAR PROJECTIONS SHOW VALUES GOING ABOVE 20 KTS BY 12 HOURS AND
ABOVE 30 KTS AT 60 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PROJECTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS GUILLERMO MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII...WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE DECISION TO HOLD
OFF ON A WATCH ISSUANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND THE WEAKER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WITH
CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST
IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 146.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.2N 148.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.1N 149.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.0N 151.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.9N 153.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 22.9N 157.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.0N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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