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 213 
 WTPA44 PHFO 020255
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUILLERMO HAS REMAINED RAGGED THROUGH 
 THE DAY WITH A HINT OF A PARTIAL EYE BRIEFLY APPEARING THIS MORNING.
 A 0001 UTC SSMI PASS WAS PARTICULARLY HELPFUL DETERMINING THE
 CENTER POSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HFO BOTH CAME IN AT 5.0/90 KT...WHILE CIMSS
 ADT SUGGESTED 85 KT. SINCE LITTLE CHANGE IS OBSERVED IN THE OUTFLOW
 AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY COLD...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
 AT 10 KT. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE REMAINS A DEEP RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GUILLERMO...THOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE HAS
 DEVELOPED IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS BREAK IN THE
 RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...
 A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
 TWO DAYS AS GUILLERMO MAKES A SUBTLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO
 THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
 THE RATHER TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE 
 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE 
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS BRINGS GUILLERMO IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
 
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AS GUILLERMO HEADS
 INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT...THE OUTFLOW SHOULD BECOME
 DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND EVENTUALLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON DAY THREE AND BEYOND. THE 
 INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS IVCN WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN
 WEAKENING AS COMPARED WITH SHIPS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...
 GUILLERMO WILL BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS.
 
 IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS TOO 
 CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF GUILLERMO. WITH AN AVERAGE
 96 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF JUST OVER 200 STATUTE MILES AND A 120 HOUR
 FORECAST ERROR OF NEARLY STATUTE 300 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON
 TO DETERMINE WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
 TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT ALSO IMPORTANT
 TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
 WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
 U.S. AIR FORCE ARE SCHEDULED TO BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS INTO
 GUILLERMO ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL
 CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION ON ITS TRANSIT TO HAWAII ON
 SUNDAY.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0300Z 14.0N 141.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE
  
 
 
 
 
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