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 151 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 160249
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009
  
 GUILLERMO HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE VIGOR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS AND...IF ANYTHING...HAS DEVELOPED A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL
 DENSE OVERCAST SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  A RATHER DISTINCT...
 CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS ALSO OBSERVED...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
 REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  SINCE 1800 UTC...DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
 SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF GUILLERMO HAS AT LEAST
 PERSISTED. BASED UPON THESE DATA AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS
 HIGH AS 5.6 FROM UW CIMSS ADT ANALYSES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
 HELD AT 95 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY
 MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE SYNOPTIC
 REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.  GUILLERMO IS
 CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
 WESTWARD IN THE EAST PACIFIC TO PAST 140W.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS
 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP GUILLERMO ON A STABLE...WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RETROGRADING
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
 SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF GUILLERMO BY IMPARTING A
 SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE
 PERIOD...THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GUIDE A WEAKENING
 GUILLERMO ON ESSENTIALLY THE SAME TRACK.
  
 UNDER VERY LIGHT SHEAR...GUILLERMO HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
 INTENSITY IN SPITE OF MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
 HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND EVEN COOLER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN A DECIDED WEAKENING.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
 IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH ICON AND LGEM AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPER
 ENSEMBLE...CALLING FOR GUILLERMO TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4
 AND TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.7N 135.9W    95 KT
  12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.3N 137.9W    80 KT
  24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N 140.5W    70 KT
  36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 143.1W    55 KT
  48HR VT     18/0000Z 23.1N 145.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     19/0000Z 25.5N 151.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N 156.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     21/0000Z 30.5N 162.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
  
 
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