755 
 WTPA44 PHFO 170255
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102009
 500 PM HST SUN AUG 16 2009
 
 GUILLERMO NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A
 STEEP DECLINE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
 SHEAR IS DOING ITS JOB...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION IS STARTING TO PEEK OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION.
 DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FALLING FAST...AND THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS T AND CI
 NUMBERS.  GUILLERMO SHOULD NOT REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR MUCH LONGER.
 WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WHILE
 SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND
 LGEM SOLUTIONS...A FASTER DEMISE THAN PREDICTED BY THE GFDL AND
 HWRF.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
 WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
 AS THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED APART AND SPINS DOWN...IT WILL BE
 INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE HIGH TO ITS
 NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD SEND GUILLERMO GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
 FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME IT SHOULD BE A
 WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF HAWAII ALONG ABOUT 30 DEGREES
 NORTH LATITUDE...AND SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF ANOTHER
 HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...ESPECIALLY AT THE END WHERE THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW HAS
 BEEN SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...IN A MANNER CONSISTENT WITH
 THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 20.7N 141.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N 143.6W    55 KT
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 22.6N 146.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 149.7W    40 KT
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 25.7N 152.6W    35 KT
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 29.0N 159.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     21/0000Z 30.0N 166.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     22/0000Z 30.0N 172.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB