Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 504 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 210851
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2011
  
 THE LAST FEW PIXELS OF -50C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS WAS EVIDENT ON
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC.  SATELLITE CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE STILL 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT THAT
 TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  GRADUAL
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GREG MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL 22C TO 23C
 WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  IF NO DEEP CONVECTION
 REDEVELOPS...GREG WOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER
 THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.
 
 FOR A DECAYING SYSTEM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL
 TRACK GUIDANCE.  SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...
 GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW GREG TAKING A DIVE TOWARD THE
 SOUTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND
 BAM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD. 
 SINCE GREG IS BECOMING A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM...I WAS INCLINED
 TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS AND MOVED
 THE NHC TRACK FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...ALSO ENDING UP NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 20.2N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 20.4N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  22/0600Z 20.4N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  22/1800Z 20.2N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  23/0600Z 19.9N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GREG

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman