053 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 202037
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011
  
 GREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX
 HOURS...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION STUBBORNLY PERSISTING NEAR THE
 CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME
 IN AT 30 KT...THOUGH A COINCIDENT ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS AROUND
 35 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
 BEEN HELD AT 35 KT...AND GREG REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. GREG WILL BE STEERED ON A NEARLY DUE
 WEST TRACK TONIGHT BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE
 HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
 MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED
 TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GREG...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
 SHALLOW AND SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH.
 THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
  
 GREG WILL BE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SSTS
 WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 23C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
 STABLE AIR IS INGESTED FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...GREG SHOULD
 WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN
 INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS OR SO.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/2100Z 19.9N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 19.9N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  21/1800Z 19.7N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  22/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  22/1800Z 18.9N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  23/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE/AVILA