661 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 200243
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011
 
 AFTER THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
 RECOVERED NEAR THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...
 THIS BURST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE ALREADY
 WARMING.  A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
 AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX
 OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOL WATERS
 AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
 ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
 OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
 MODELS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
 SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. 
 ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST ALONG
 125W...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS
 AND CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.   THE GUIDANCE IS JUST A
 BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO...AND THE
 NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/0300Z 19.7N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 19.8N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/0000Z 19.8N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  21/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  22/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  23/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE