130 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 170833
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011
  
 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INCREASING
 IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AT 0600
 UTC. IN ADDITION...A SHIP REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT JUST TO THE NORTH
 OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER AT 0300 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
 INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE
 TROPICAL STORM GREG.
 
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT
 USING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP OBSERVATION IT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
 TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING
 MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A
 SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE LEFT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS GREG MOVES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF
 THE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE
 WEAKENING ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE U.S. WEST
 COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN IN THE
 LONGER RANGE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIES VERY NEAR
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE
 SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND
 ECMWF MODELS.
 
 GREG IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 30C...AND A RELATIVELY
 MOIST ATMOSPHERE. DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO SLACKEN AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
 TRACK GRADUALLY LOWER BUT REMAIN ABOVE 26C. THESE CONDITIONS
 SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH
 END OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. GREG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
 OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ABOUT
 THREE DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. 
     
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0900Z 15.8N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 16.6N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 17.4N 107.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  18/1800Z 18.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  20/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  22/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI