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 324 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 170238
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE
 SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
 REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. 
 THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE
 EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  DURING THE NEXT 12-24
 HOURS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE
 FORECAST TO DECREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
 FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
 IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS FROM THE
 VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE HIGHER
 THAN THE LGEM AND HWRF...AND SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
 HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
 CONDITIONS...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER SHIPS/GFDL
 GUIDANCE...BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE.
 
 THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER A TIMELY 0003 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
 SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/12.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT MOVING ON
 A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND
 5...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.  THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 3-4 DAYS...WITH SOME
 DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE TVCE
 MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS. 
 THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
 SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/0300Z 15.0N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 15.6N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  18/0000Z 16.4N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  18/1200Z 17.1N 108.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  19/0000Z 17.8N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  20/0000Z 18.9N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  21/0000Z 19.8N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  22/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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