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 865 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 150235
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
  
 GREG REMAINS COMPLETELY SHEARED ABOUT 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE
 NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FROM A
 DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IS STREAMING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE...
 AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 200 MB EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO
 INCREASE OVER GREG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE LOW-LEVEL
 FLOW KEEPS THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS FORECAST...THIS
 WOULD REPRESENT MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO KILL GREG OFF.
 HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT
 REINTENSIFICATION...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW DISSIPATION AT THIS TIME. 
 
 THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH MEANDERS GREG
 FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE PULLING IT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
 BACK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE WESTWARD OPTION MAKES
 SENSE IF GREG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS NO NET MOTION DURING THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...ASSUMES THAT GREG WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND
 QUALITATIVELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SCENARIO.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT
 IS UNLIKELY THAT GREG WILL IN FACT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
 FOR LONGER THAN A DAY OR SO.  
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.4N 115.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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