607 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 141430
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
  
 FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. BECAUSE
 THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME DISORGANIZED THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER...ONLY
 SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WILL RESULT IN RE-STRENGTHENING. THIS
 IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL
 INTENSIFY GREG.
 
 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEADERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS
 THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...GREG SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD
 WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF TE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 14.5N 115.5W    35 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 118.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W    35 KT
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 122.5W    40 KT
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 130.5W    65 KT
  
  
 $$