871 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 111047
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
  
 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH
 OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 THIS MORNING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 01Z CLEARLY SHOWED 3/4 OF A
 CIRCULATION.  A TRMM PASS AT 06Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
 TO THE SOUTH OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...WITH A BROADER BAND
 FARTHER OUT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT
 6Z WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB.  HOWEVER...SINCE THAT
 TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY JUST OVER AND SOUTH OF
 THE CENTER...WHILE NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ROTATION TO
 CONCLUDE THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER EXISTS.  THE PRESENT PATTERN
 WAS ASSESSED TO BE T2.0 BY TAFB AT 9Z...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING
 INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY ABOUT 650 NMI
 BEHIND FERNANDA...AND FERNANDA COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
 FUTURE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.  A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED
 JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE
 DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT RUN.  THE MEDIUM BAM
 WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS
 FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS A FAIR BIT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST...SO I AM PRESUMING MORE OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
 CYCLONES THAN INDICATED BY THE BAMM...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE DEPRESSION WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
 EITHER THE GFS OR THE BAM GUIDANCE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
 WERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF INCONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT MOTION AND A
 POOR INITIALIZATION...RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THAT THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST HAS NO PARTICULAR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT IT...IT IS
 A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH OUTFLOW FROM
 FERNANDA...AND IF IT TAKES THE FORECAST PATH...WILL HAVE TO DEAL
 WITH COLD WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THUS ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION
 IS EXPECTED.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1100Z 13.2N 109.8W    25 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W    35 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W    40 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W    35 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$