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 231 
 WTNT42 KNHC 060244
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015
 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015
 
 Most of the deep convection associated with Grace is located west
 and southwest of the estimated center position, consistent with
 light-to-moderate easterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by
 UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 35 kt
 based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Grace
 will be moving over warm waters and in a low shear environment for
 the next 24 to 36 hours, which should support some strengthening.
 After that time, the shear becomes westerly and increases with the
 cyclone moving over slightly cooler waters. As a result, much of the
 intensity guidance suggests that Grace will weaken later in the
 period, with dissipation also possible. The new NHC intensity
 forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest
 IVCN intensity consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 280/12. Grace should continue moving
 generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a
 subtropical ridge for the next several days. The track model
 guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is
 some variability in forward speed. The new NHC track forecast is
 an update of the previous one and lies a little south of the
 consensus given that Grace is forecast to be weaker by the end
 of the period. This track is close to the latest predictions from
 the GFS model and the FSU Superensemble.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 12.8N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 13.0N  29.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 13.3N  32.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 13.6N  35.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 14.1N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 14.8N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 15.3N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 16.0N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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