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 452 
 WTNT43 KNHC 190846
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
 500 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
  
 GORDON REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE
 WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
 TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
 VALUES LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE EYE AND A THINNING OF
 THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
 INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE HURRICANE HAS NOW MOVED OVER
 SUB-26C WATERS AND CURRENTLY LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
 WESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
 FURTHER ON THE EXPECTED TRACK AND BECAUSE GORDON IS ANTICIPATED TO
 MOVE INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN 2 TO 3
 DAYS...WHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
 SIGNIFICANTLY DECOUPLED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 4...FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL
 MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. A SHORT
 WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 40N/40W IS SWINGING
 SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE
 CYCLONE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING GORDON VERY NEAR SANTA
 MARIA AND SAO MIGUEL ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN AZORES IN 18 TO 24
 HOURS.  AFTER PASSING THE AZORES...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS
 FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURN BACK TO THE EAST
 BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/0900Z 34.9N  31.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  19/1800Z 35.7N  28.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  20/0600Z 37.2N  25.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  20/1800Z 38.6N  22.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  21/0600Z 39.4N  19.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  22/0600Z 39.7N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
  
 
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