369 
 WTNT43 KNHC 180905
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
 500 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012
  
 GORDON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...AND
 RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOWED AN EYE HAS DEVELOPED.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 KT AT 0600
 UTC...AND AN AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS AT 0454 UTC WAS 64 KT.  BASED
 ON THESE DATA AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...GORDON
 IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/16.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED WEST
 OF THE BRITISH ISLES SHOULD STEER GORDON EASTWARD TO EAST-
 NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  AFTER THAT...A SLOWER MOTION
 TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
 AND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF GORDON.
 THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
 NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AND THE SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
 STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE
 NEXT 12-18 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GORDON TO
 REMAIN A HURRICANE TODAY.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR...
 DECREASING SSTS...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD
 CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING.  GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME
 EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN
 AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/0900Z 34.0N  40.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 34.0N  37.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 34.5N  33.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 35.3N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 36.5N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  22/0600Z 38.5N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN