841 
 WTNT43 KNHC 162040
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
 500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012
  
 GORDON HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. VISIBLE
 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY COILED CONVECTIVE CLOUD
 BANDS SPIRALING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T3.0/45 KT
 FROM SAB...AND T2.7/39 KT ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. AN 1143 UTC SSMIS
 IMAGE INDICATED A CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND A 1311 UTC ASCAT
 OVERPASS REVEALED 39-KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WHEN ADJUSTED FOR THE
 KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA YIELDS ABOUT 44 KT. GIVEN
 THE MUCH IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE SINCE THOSE MICROWAVE DATA WERE
 ACQUIRED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.
  
 GORDON IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 055/15 KT...AND
 IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE
 NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO
 THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. GORDON
 SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH AT
 LEAST THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
 FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A 
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BETWEEN DAYS 3
 AND 4. THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
 THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
  
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND
 DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MANAGED THUS FAR TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
 INNER CORE REGION. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH SSTS GREATER
 THAN 27C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
 DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...ENTRAINMENT OF
 DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. AS GORDON
 NEARS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
 BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
 BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS CLOSE
 TO IV15 INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/2100Z 34.2N  52.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 34.7N  49.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 34.9N  46.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  18/0600Z 34.7N  42.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  18/1800Z 34.7N  38.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  19/1800Z 36.1N  30.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  20/1800Z 38.8N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  21/1800Z 41.2N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART