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 828 
 WTNT42 KNHC 180237
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006
 
 AN EYE IS STILL EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES AND DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT FROM THE VARIOUS
 AGENCIES.  GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
 RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH SSTS AROUND 26
 DEG C.  THIS REGIME SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MORE OR
 LESS MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER SOME
 WEAKENING COULD OCCUR DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR
 ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER AS GORDON
 BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...THE COMBINATION OF GORDON AND THE
 LARGER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE LARGER CYCLONE WILL
 DOMINATE...AND THEREFORE ABSORB...THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF
 GORDON.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALTHOUGH A
 LITTLE STRONGER IN VIEW OF THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE ABSORBING
 SYSTEM.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS
 MODEL...THAT GORDON WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN EXPECTED HERE.  THE FORECAST
 TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
 STORM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS..
 
 THE HEADING HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 040...AT
 12 KT.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS
 GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY
 CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL...U.K. MET...AND GFS CONSENSUS.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY USING A RECENT QUIKSCAT
 PASS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0300Z 35.4N  51.5W    70 KT
  12HR VT     18/1200Z 36.9N  49.1W    65 KT
  24HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  44.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     19/1200Z 38.4N  37.5W    60 KT
  48HR VT     20/0000Z 38.5N  29.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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