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 026 
 WTNT42 KNHC 151446
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
  
 GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.  DESPITE THE WEAKENING
 TREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS
 EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA
 T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 SET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
 GORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE
 STEERING CURRENTS.  GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
 AROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3
 DAYS.  THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH
 WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE
 RIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
 WESTERLIES.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL
 GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT
 ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE INTENSITY IS
 THEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
 GORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
 EXTRATROPICAL STATUS.
  
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/1500Z 31.1N  53.3W    85 KT
  12HR VT     16/0000Z 31.8N  52.7W    75 KT
  24HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  52.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  51.5W    60 KT
  48HR VT     17/1200Z 35.3N  49.7W    55 KT
  72HR VT     18/1200Z 39.5N  42.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     19/1200Z 42.5N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     20/1200Z 45.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
  
 
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