385 
 WTNT42 KNHC 150229
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN
 SLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
 MODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
 THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
 GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST
 AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND
 SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
 A LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC
 MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A
 CLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW
 WEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR
 THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER
 AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A
 SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
 WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 30.6N  54.3W   100 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 31.4N  53.5W    90 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 32.1N  52.7W    80 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.9N  51.9W    70 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 34.0N  50.8W    60 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 37.5N  46.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 41.5N  35.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART