571 
 WTNT42 KNHC 122047
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
  
 THE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
 IN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE
 EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH
 IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 BASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG 
 THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
 WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A
 LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
 GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS 
 WELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN 
 IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
 THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A
 NORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO
 THE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
 CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
  
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
 UPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN
 INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
 BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON
 A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
 ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 23.7N  58.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  58.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  58.5W    75 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 27.7N  58.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 29.5N  58.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  56.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 36.5N  52.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 40.0N  46.0W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER COBB/PASCH