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 740 
 WTNT42 KNHC 121453
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
  
 A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0730 UTC...A 1023 WINDSAT PASS AND VISIBLE
 SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
 GORDON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA
 AVERAGE 50 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 OVER THE CYCLONE WHICH IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
 QUADRANT AND MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TEMPORARY LEVELING OFF
 IN THE INTENSITY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...345/8. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
 OF A NARROWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A
 LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
 GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS
 INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL ALLOW GORDON TO TURN
 NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY RECURVE AFTER 48 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN AN
 OUTLIER...NOW ALSO RECURVES GORDON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
 AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES GORDON A 95 KT
 HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN
 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE
 AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH COULD BE ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING
 FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
 ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 23.4N  58.3W    50 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 24.4N  58.6W    55 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.8N  58.8W    65 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.4N  58.8W    75 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  58.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  57.5W    75 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  54.5W    70 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 39.0N  49.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
  
 
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