Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 060 
 WTNT43 KNHC 192039
 TCDAT3
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014
 
 The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
 southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
 taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
 more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
 center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
 wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
 looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
 system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
 cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
 consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
 expected during the next 48 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
 the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
 24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
 considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
 pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
 track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
 is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo.  Additional information on
 this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
 National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
 header FZNT01 KWBC.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 51.6N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  12H  20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  22/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GONZALO

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman