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 934 
 WTNT43 KNHC 191434
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014
 
 Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,
 Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845
 UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm
 core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the
 southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds
 during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained
 wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since
 this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial
 intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional
 models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward
 during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion
 over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3
 days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and
 ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA
 Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and
 gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
 post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over
 the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity
 forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/1500Z 49.0N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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