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 548 
 WTNT43 KNHC 190832
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014
 
 A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although
 cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has
 been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some
 weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15
 deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and
 weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-
 tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over
 the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48
 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the
 global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing
 northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The
 global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating
 east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of
 days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
 models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/0900Z 46.3N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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